CEASEFIRE BECOMES REARMAMENT WINDOW FOR U.S. AND IRAN

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has become more than a pause in fighting. It has also become a period in which both sides are reassessing military stockpiles, repairing damaged systems, and preparing for the possibility that negotiations fail. Talks in Doha this week focused on a possible deal to end the three-month war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, but officials on both sides said no final agreement was imminent.

The ceasefire has been fragile since early April. The Associated Press reported that a truce has held since April 7, despite occasional drone and missile attacks on the United Arab Emirates and exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters also reported earlier this month that the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire while both governments still described the ceasefire as active.

Iran’s military recovery is one of the main questions hanging over the talks. Reuters reported last week that CNN, citing U.S. intelligence sources, said Iran was rebuilding its military industrial base faster than expected. Reuters said it could not independently verify that report. The same Reuters report noted that President Donald Trump said the U.S. was ready to launch further attacks on Tehran if Iran did not agree to a peace deal, while suggesting Washington could wait for answers.

Iran’s missile program remains one of the unresolved issues. Reuters reported in a May explainer that one prewar U.S. demand was for Iran to limit the range of its ballistic missiles so they could not reach Israel. The U.S. has said the war degraded Iran’s missile stocks, but Iran has refused to discuss its ballistic missile program, arguing that conventional weapons are not negotiable.

The United States is also managing its own weapons problem. Al Jazeera reported that U.S. officials have publicly projected confidence in American stockpiles, while analysts say munitions use may be shaping Washington’s decisions over whether to resume the war. The report cited concerns over the use of THAAD, Patriot, Standard Missile interceptors, and Tomahawk missiles during the conflict, with analysts warning that rebuilding some categories of munitions could take years.

That makes rearmament part of the diplomacy. If Iran is using the ceasefire to restore missile production and air-defense capacity, Washington and its allies have an incentive to shorten negotiations or demand verifiable limits. If the U.S. is preserving interceptor stocks and managing regional commitments, Tehran may calculate that time also works in its favor. Neither side needs to formally abandon talks for the military balance to keep shifting underneath them.

The emerging deal still appears focused on ending the war, reopening Hormuz, and creating a later 60-day process for nuclear issues. AP reported that unresolved questions include whether Iran can continue enriching uranium, what happens to its missile program, and whether U.S. forces remain in the region. Those gaps matter because they are exactly the issues that could determine whether the ceasefire becomes a settlement or simply an interval before the next round of fighting.

For global markets and regional governments, the difference is significant. A durable agreement could reopen a major energy route and reduce pressure on oil prices. A failed agreement could return the U.S., Iran, Israel, and Gulf states to a conflict in which both sides have had weeks to repair, reload, and reconsider their next moves.

Fact-check date: 25 May 2026
Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera

[IMG]https://vepbrgvfdbpwzesrqysv.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/article-images/1779722452625-0io8eo0rjes.png||Mission Offline Desk[/IMG]