QUEBEC SEPARATISM COOLS AS TARIFF WAR RESHAPES POLITICS

Developing story: Quebec polling, tariff implementation, provincial election dynamics and Canada-U.S. negotiations may change the political outlook.

The U.S. tariff war has cooled appetite in Quebec for a quick push toward independence from Canada, Reuters reported Saturday, as economic pressure from Washington reshapes provincial politics ahead of an election due by Oct. 5. The finding complicates the usual assumption that economic disruption automatically strengthens Quebec separatism.

Reuters reported that support for independence is around 30 percent, its lowest level in decades, while many Quebecers now see Canadian unity as more useful in confronting U.S. pressure. The shift follows a period in which tariffs have hit provincial industries and turned Trump into a deeply unpopular figure in the province.

The economic pressure is visible at the factory level. Reuters reported that one steel-related factory in Quebec lost about a third of its orders for bolts and fasteners within a week after Trump levied 50 percent tariffs on Canadian steel last year. The company froze hiring, closed a plant and cut jobs, according to the report.

The political effect is counterintuitive. In past downturns, economic stress sometimes gave separatists an opening to argue that Quebec would do better on its own. This time, the external pressure is coming from the United States, and many voters appear to see Canadian bargaining power as protection rather than a constraint.

Quebec’s provincial government is still under pressure to defend dairy, forestry, manufacturing and language-linked cultural policies. But even voters who distrust Ottawa may be reluctant to weaken Canada’s negotiating position while Washington is using tariffs as leverage.

The tariff fight also affects federal-provincial relations. Prime Minister Mark Carney needs provincial cooperation on any concessions involving alcohol sales, dairy access or retaliation. Quebec leaders can use that leverage to demand protection for local industries while avoiding a full sovereignty campaign.

What is confirmed is that Reuters reported tariff pressure has lowered appetite for a quick Quebec separation push and that Trump is deeply unpopular in the province. What remains unresolved is whether the tariff shock produces lasting Canadian unity or only a temporary pause in the sovereignty debate.

Fact-check date: August 22, 2026. Article type: Analysis. Sources: Reuters; Angus Reid Institute. Developing note: Quebec polling, tariff implementation, provincial election dynamics and Canada-U.S. negotiations may change the political outlook.