POTUS ENTERS MIDTERM SEASON WITH FOREIGN POLICY WINS HARDER TO SHOW

President Donald Trump is moving toward the fall midterm campaign period with several major foreign policy files unresolved, leaving his administration to defend a strategy built on pressure, speed and presidential leverage. Reuters reported that the Iran conflict, Gaza diplomacy, Ukraine negotiations and trade disputes have all complicated Trump’s claim that he returned to office as a peacemaker able to produce rapid settlements. The challenge is not that the administration lacks activity; it is that activity has not yet translated into durable, visible agreements that voters can easily connect to stability or lower costs.

The Iran confrontation is the heaviest burden. Trump has shifted toward a new campaign of economic pressure after months of conflict failed to produce the concessions Washington sought. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce expanded sanctions against Iran and its trading partners, a move the administration frames as a powerful nonmilitary instrument. Yet Iran has warned of retaliation and threatened disruption in the Gulf, where shipping risks can feed directly into energy markets. The longer the confrontation continues, the harder it becomes for the White House to present the policy as a completed success.

Gaza is another unresolved file. A U.S.-backed ceasefire ended the most intense phase of fighting, but Israeli strikes have continued, Hamas’ disarmament remains unresolved and plans for an international stabilization force remain incomplete. Trump’s envoy and son-in-law Jared Kushner has been involved in efforts to advance the plan, but Reuters reported that talks have not produced the breakthrough needed to move from ceasefire management to a durable political arrangement. Each new strike or breakdown gives critics an opportunity to argue that the administration has stabilized the conflict only partially.

Ukraine poses a different challenge. Trump has pressed for negotiations to end Russia’s war, but U.S.-led talks have stalled, and European leaders are increasing their own military commitments to Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy marked Independence Day Monday by saying Ukraine wants peace but will not surrender, while British and European leaders pledged further support in Kyiv. That scene underscored a reality Washington cannot ignore: Europe is preparing for a long war even as Trump seeks a deal. A settlement that Ukraine rejects would not hold, while a deal acceptable to Kyiv has remained out of reach.

Trade policy adds a domestic economic dimension to the foreign policy picture. The administration’s new 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods have triggered a planned Canadian retaliation and raised concern about a deeper rupture with a close ally. Trump argues that tariffs correct unfair treatment and rebuild American production, but tariffs also risk higher consumer prices and supply-chain disruption. When conflicts abroad are already feeding inflation anxieties, a trade war with Canada can make foreign policy look less like a source of strength and more like another driver of uncertainty.

The administration rejects the idea that its strategy is failing. White House officials point to previous hostage releases, ceasefire arrangements, pressure on adversaries and trade concessions as evidence that Trump has restored American leverage. They argue that his willingness to use tariffs, sanctions and military power forces opponents to negotiate. That argument has political appeal among voters who see conventional diplomacy as weak or slow. It also helps the president explain why unresolved conflicts are not signs of failure but stages in a broader campaign of coercive bargaining.

The weakness of that approach is that leverage is not the same as settlement. Coercion can bring parties to the table, but it does not automatically solve disputes involving territory, regime survival, ideology or domestic politics. Iran’s leaders may accept economic pain rather than concede under threat. Russia may believe it can outlast Western support for Ukraine. Hamas and Israel may each resist the steps needed to move beyond a ceasefire. Canada may decide that surrendering to U.S. demands would damage its own sovereignty. Those calculations limit what presidential pressure can accomplish alone.

The midterm calendar matters because foreign policy setbacks can reinforce domestic frustration. Voters rarely decide elections solely on overseas events, but they notice gasoline prices, inflation, military risk, trade disruption and perceptions of competence. Reuters cited polling showing Trump’s approval under pressure as the Iran war and economic concerns persist. If the administration cannot show clear progress by the time campaigning intensifies after Labor Day, Democrats may use unresolved conflicts and tariff costs to argue that Trump’s approach has produced instability rather than strength.

Still, the political effects are not predetermined. A major sanctions breakthrough, a reduction in Gulf tensions, a credible Gaza security arrangement or a renewed Ukraine negotiation could improve the administration’s argument. Trump has often relied on dramatic announcements and late-stage bargaining, and his supporters may credit him for confronting adversaries even without final agreements. The risk for the White House is that several issues are now moving at once, and each one carries its own escalation path. A surprise in any single theatre can alter the public mood.

The administration enters the midterm season with influence but not closure. Its foreign policy is visible, forceful and disruptive, but the central outcomes remain unsettled. Iran is under pressure but defiant, Gaza is quieter than during open war but still unstable, Ukraine is resisting rather than negotiating on Russian terms, and Canada is retaliating rather than yielding. The next few weeks will show whether Trump can convert pressure into results or whether unresolved crises become a campaign liability. Fact-check date: August 24, 2026. Article type: Analysis. Sources: Reuters; Associated Press.