GLOBAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR RECORD HIGHS THROUGH 2030

Global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels over the next five years, according to a new World Meteorological Organization report produced by the UK Met Office. The forecast says annual global mean near-surface temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.

The report gives an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. It also says at least one year in that period is highly likely to temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a threshold closely associated with the Paris Agreement’s long-term climate target.

Scientists stress that a single year above 1.5°C does not mean the Paris Agreement limit has formally failed. The Paris target refers to long-term average warming, not one unusually hot year. But repeated temporary breaches make it harder to keep long-term warming below that threshold and increase the risk of more severe heatwaves, droughts, floods, fires, and ecosystem stress.

The Arctic is expected to warm much faster than the global average. Reuters reported that Arctic regions could warm at more than 3.5 times the global average, with winter temperatures projected around 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. The WMO report also warns of further sea-ice decline, especially around the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas.

The forecast also points to regional weather shifts. Reuters and The Guardian reported that northern parts of the Northern Hemisphere are expected to see wetter winter conditions, while the Amazon may face drier conditions. That matters because changes in rainfall patterns can affect agriculture, water supplies, wildfire risk, transport, and public-health planning.

The projected heat comes as several regions are already dealing with record or near-record conditions. Reuters reported that Britain recorded its hottest May day on record earlier this week, with temperatures reaching 34.8°C at Kew Gardens in west London. The UK Met Office said that level of May heat was made significantly more likely by human-driven climate change.

The near-term forecast does not mean every year will be hotter than the last in a simple straight line. Natural climate patterns, including El Niño and La Niña, can push individual years higher or lower. But the WMO’s overall warning is that the baseline is rising, and that the next five years are likely to keep the planet close to record heat levels.

For governments, the forecast is a planning problem as much as an environmental warning. Higher heat affects power grids, air conditioning demand, food production, wildfire risk, flood planning, emergency medicine, insurance, infrastructure, and worker safety. The practical question is no longer whether warmer conditions are coming, but whether public systems are adapting quickly enough for the level of heat now expected through 2030.

Fact-check date: 28 May 2026
Sources: World Meteorological Organization, UK Met Office, Reuters, Associated Press, The Guardian

[IMG]https://vepbrgvfdbpwzesrqysv.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/article-images/1779982517781-uk8jvao1o6m.png||Mission Offline Desk[/IMG]