OIL PRICES SWING NEAR $100 PER BARREL AS US-IRAN PEACE TALKS STALL OVER HORMUZ AND ENRICHED URANIUM

Oil prices remained volatile this week, swinging around the $100-per-barrel level as the status of U.S.-Iran negotiations continued to shift. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose above $102 on May 12 before retreating below $100 on May 20 after President Donald Trump described talks with Iran as being "in the final stages," according to CNBC.

The market's sensitivity to diplomatic signals reflects the disruption caused by the Strait of Hormuz conflict. The waterway handles roughly 20 percent of global oil trade, and sustained uncertainty over its status has driven elevated prices throughout the spring. Barclays raised its full-year 2026 Brent crude forecast to $100 per barrel from $85 earlier this year, citing a supply deficit estimated at approximately 6.6 million barrels per day.

The key sticking points in negotiations remain Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and the question of whether Tehran would retain any formal role in controlling shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned last week that any peace deal would be "unfeasible" if Iran pursues measures to permanently control the waterway, CNBC reported.

Global demand forecasts have also shifted in the wake of the disruption. The International Energy Agency revised its 2026 oil demand projection in April, forecasting a second-quarter contraction of roughly 1.5 million barrels per day — the sharpest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. European economies including Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are expected to face short-lived GDP contractions linked in part to elevated energy costs, according to S&P Global's May 2026 economic outlook.