OIL HOLDS NEAR THREE-WEEK HIGH AS HORMUZ TRAFFIC STAYS WEAK

Developing story: Oil prices, vessel counts, Iraqi export mechanisms, Russian loadings and U.S.-Iran statements may change during the trading day.

Oil prices held near three-week highs Wednesday as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz kept a geopolitical risk premium in crude markets, even after prices trimmed earlier gains. Reuters reported that Brent crude traded around $91.20 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate around $85.10 as traders weighed disrupted shipping, weak safe-passage confidence and stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy.

The market is reacting to more than rhetoric. Reuters reported that most shipowners continued avoiding Hormuz because of uncertainty over the waterway, while Kpler data showed traffic still running well below normal. The strait carried about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February.

The current price move is different from a brief panic spike because the disruption is lasting long enough for analysts to discuss a more durable premium. If buyers, shippers and insurers assume the strait will remain unreliable, that view can become embedded in freight rates, refinery planning, physical cargo premiums and inflation forecasts.

Trump said Tuesday that the strait was open, but Iran said it remained shut, and Reuters reported that no talks were taking place with Tehran. That contradiction matters because energy markets need reliable operating rules, not competing political claims. A route may be technically passable while still too risky for commercial operators to use at scale.

Iraq is responding to the risk by approving new mechanisms for exporting crude through specialized international and local companies and multiple outlets starting Sept. 1, Reuters reported. The move suggests that Gulf producers are no longer treating Hormuz uncertainty as a short-term problem that can be ignored until diplomacy resumes.

Russian supply added another layer to the market. Reuters reported that oil shipments from Russia’s western ports fell to about 2.3 million barrels per day in the first half of August, roughly 15 percent below the initial loading plan, because of disruptions at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. That means Middle East risk is overlapping with Ukraine-war disruptions to Russian export flows.

Higher oil prices feed directly into the political economy of the war. In the United States, fuel prices are already part of the midterm debate. In Europe and Canada, energy costs are affecting inflation readings. In Asia, refiners must decide whether to accept higher shipping risk or pay more for alternative cargoes.

What is confirmed is that crude prices remained near recent highs while Hormuz traffic stayed weak and U.S.-Iran talks remained stalled. What remains unresolved is whether Saudi, Iraqi and other export adjustments can offset the disruption, or whether a longer Hormuz crisis pushes Brent toward a higher trading range.

Fact-check date: August 19, 2026. Article type: News. Sources: Reuters; Kpler. Developing note: Oil prices, vessel counts, Iraqi export mechanisms, Russian loadings and U.S.-Iran statements may change during the trading day.