U.S. TREASURY YIELDS RISE AHEAD OF INFLATION DATA AND WARSH TESTIMONY

U.S. Treasury yields rose in the week leading into July 10 as investors prepared for June inflation data and congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, according to the Wall Street Journal. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 0.091 percentage points to 4.568%, its highest level since May, while the 2-year yield rose to 4.208%.

The move came during a week when markets were balancing domestic inflation concerns with geopolitical pressure. The Wall Street Journal reported that heightened U.S.-Iran tensions and rising oil prices helped push yields higher early in the week, before optimism over renewed U.S.-Iran peace talks helped stabilize markets.

Investors are watching June consumer-price data for signs of whether inflation is slowing enough to keep the Federal Reserve from tightening further. The Wall Street Journal reported that headline CPI is expected to slow to 3.8%, while core CPI is forecast at 2.8%.

The inflation data lands as Warsh prepares for his first congressional testimony as Fed chair. He is scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee on July 14 and the Senate Banking Committee on July 15. MarketWatch reported that lawmakers are expected to press Warsh on his economic outlook, inflation strategy and interest-rate plans after a first month in which he has said little publicly about policy.

Warsh's silence has drawn attention because markets are trying to determine whether the Fed is closer to another rate increase or a longer hold. MarketWatch reported that Warsh previously supported rate cuts before taking the chair, but has since adopted a more restrained communication style while the Fed faces internal divisions over policy.

The bond-market move also reflects the way oil and inflation expectations can reinforce each other. Higher crude prices can feed into energy costs, transport prices and consumer expectations, raising concern that inflation could remain sticky even if underlying demand cools.

The Wall Street Journal reported that investors are also weighing the probability of a future Fed rate hike, with market pricing showing increased attention to that possibility. That means Warsh's testimony may matter not only for what he says about current data, but for whether he signals tolerance for higher inflation or willingness to tighten if price pressures persist.

The immediate questions are whether June CPI confirms the expected slowdown, whether Warsh gives markets a clearer policy signal, and whether Iran-related oil risk continues to pressure inflation expectations. Until those answers arrive, Treasury markets are likely to remain sensitive to both economic data and geopolitical headlines.

Fact-check date: 11 July 2026
Article type: News
Sources: Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, CNBC, Federal Reserve