EUROPE WEIGHS RUSSIA STRATEGY AS DEFENCE CONCERNS GROW

European governments are reassessing their Russia strategy as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, U.S.-led peace efforts stall, and concerns grow that Moscow’s pressure on Europe could extend beyond the battlefield. Reuters reported Wednesday that EU foreign ministers are meeting in Cyprus to discuss how, and under what conditions, Europe should eventually engage with Russia, while Ukraine pushes the bloc to take a larger diplomatic role.

The meeting comes as Europe faces a difficult balance: keeping pressure on Russia while preparing for the possibility that negotiations may eventually require European conditions, guarantees, or enforcement mechanisms. Reuters reported that possible EU demands could include a ceasefire, Russian withdrawal from neighbouring countries, and an end to cyber operations against Europe. Diplomats also acknowledged that the bloc does not yet have full consensus on when or how to engage Moscow.

The security backdrop is getting sharper. Britain and Poland are signing a new defence and security treaty aimed at countering hostile threats across Europe, with cooperation planned on cybersecurity, border security, organised crime, defence technology, missile systems, and air defence. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the treaty is focused on defence against Russia, while London has framed the agreement as part of a wider effort to reinforce European partnerships after Brexit.

Russia’s hybrid activity is also pushing Europe toward a more serious defence posture. Reuters reported that GCHQ chief Anne Keast-Butler warned Russia is increasing hybrid activity against the U.K. and Europe, including cyberattacks and infrastructure sabotage. Her warning fits a wider European concern that future conflict with Russia may not begin only with tanks crossing a border, but with attacks on cables, pipelines, ports, satellites, banks, logistics systems, and public trust.

NATO is also adjusting its eastern-flank planning. Reuters reported Tuesday that NATO plans to strengthen forces assigned to defend the Baltic region by reorganizing command responsibilities so troops can move faster in a conflict with Russia. The new structure would give the German-Netherlands Corps a larger role in overseeing defence of Latvia and Estonia, with the corps eventually able to support 40,000 to 60,000 troops once fully operational. Russia denies posing a threat and accuses NATO of escalating tensions.

The concern is not abstract. Russian officials have warned that risks of a direct Russia-NATO clash are increasing, while European governments are dealing with drone incursions, cyberattacks, sabotage fears, and Russian threats against Kyiv and foreign missions. Reuters reported last week that a senior Russian diplomat warned of catastrophic consequences if a direct clash occurs, while separate Reuters reporting said Russian airspace breaches have pushed eastern NATO states to call for stronger air defence.

Europe has already begun trying to close defence gaps. The European Commission and the EU’s foreign-policy leadership presented the White Paper for European Defence — Readiness 2030 in 2025, calling for a major investment surge in defence capabilities. The plan is built around the idea that Europe faces an acute and growing threat and needs readiness to deter aggression, not only respond after a crisis starts.

The immediate question is whether Europe can move quickly enough. Defence treaties, Baltic command changes, cybersecurity plans, and industrial investment all point in the same direction: European governments are preparing for a harder Russia scenario. But building air defence, drone defence, ammunition production, cyber resilience, logistics, and command capacity takes years. Moscow’s pressure is already active now.

For Ukraine, a stronger European role could mean more durable support if U.S. attention remains divided by Iran and other crises. For Europe, the issue is broader than Ukraine alone. The continent is beginning to prepare for a world where Russia remains hostile, the United States is less automatic as Europe’s security backstop, and hybrid attacks may blur the line between peace and war.

Fact-check date: 27 May 2026
Sources: Reuters, European Commission, NATO-related reporting

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