GLOBAL SHARES EDGE HIGHER AS DOLLAR FALLS AND OIL RISK PERSISTS

Developing story: Market levels, oil prices, currency moves and Federal Reserve expectations may change through the U.S. trading session.

Global shares edged higher Monday while the dollar fell to its lowest level since June, as investors marked down the chance of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase after soft U.S. economic data. Reuters reported that markets cut the probability of a September rate hike to about 30 percent, down from roughly 50 percent a week earlier.

The move reflected a series of weaker U.S. signals, including an unexpected drop in retail sales and softer consumer data. Lower rate expectations can support equities by reducing discount-rate pressure and making risk assets more attractive. They can also weaken the dollar by reducing the yield advantage of U.S. assets.

European markets were steady. Reuters reported that the STOXX 600 rose 0.04 percent, led by resource stocks as gold advanced. U.S. Nasdaq futures gained about 0.5 percent and S&P futures rose about 0.2 percent, pointing to a cautious but positive start for Wall Street.

Oil risk remained the main counterweight. Brent crude was up about 1 percent at $89.42 a barrel after rising 6 percent last week, while U.S. crude also gained, according to Reuters. The move reflected the continuing U.S.-Iran crisis and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

The Middle East connection to global markets is direct. Iran has called on Washington to accept defeat, while President Donald Trump has urged Americans to accept higher gasoline prices as the conflict continues. Shipping through Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon have added another regional risk point.

Currency markets showed the strongest reaction to the rate outlook. A weaker dollar pushed the euro and other currencies to multi-week highs, Reuters reported. That shift can ease pressure on countries with dollar debts but also reflects investor expectations that the Federal Reserve’s path may be less aggressive than previously assumed.

The mixed market picture shows why investors are not treating the day as a simple risk-on rally. Softer U.S. data help bonds and some equities by reducing rate pressure. But weaker consumer spending can also signal slowing growth, while higher oil prices can revive inflation concerns and reduce household purchasing power.

What is confirmed is that global shares edged higher, the dollar weakened and rate-hike expectations fell while oil remained elevated because of Middle East risk. What remains unresolved is whether softer U.S. data are enough to offset energy-price pressure and whether the Fed can avoid a new inflation problem if oil disruption continues.

Fact-check date: August 17, 2026. Article type: News. Sources: Reuters. Developing note: Market levels, oil prices, currency moves and Federal Reserve expectations may change through the U.S. trading session.