UK GROWTH REVISIONS AND FACTORY ORDERS EASE RECESSION FEARS

Developing story: GDP revisions, factory-order data, inflation expectations and Bank of England policy signals may change as additional economic releases arrive.

Fresh British economic data offered Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government some relief on Thursday, as the Office for National Statistics revised prior growth higher and a major manufacturers’ survey showed the strongest factory-order performance since November 2024. The figures suggest the economy may have been slightly stronger than previously believed, even as inflation and energy costs remain a burden.

Reuters reported that the ONS revised its estimates of 2023 and 2024 growth upward, with output in 2024 now estimated to be about 0.5 percent higher than previously thought. The revisions came from the statistics office’s annual review of gross domestic product, incorporating updated information about services, rents and the imputed benefit homeowners receive from not paying rent.

Revisions are not the same as new growth, but they matter for policy. If the economy was larger than previously thought, some fiscal and productivity calculations change. The government may have a slightly better starting point for debt ratios, tax projections and public-spending assumptions heading into the October budget.

The factory survey added a more current signal. The Confederation of British Industry’s monthly order-books balance rose to minus 25 in August from minus 45 in July, Reuters reported. The reading still indicates falling orders overall, but the 20-point increase was the sharpest in more than five years and among the largest moves since the survey began in the 1970s.

Export orders moved into positive territory for the first time since June 2022, according to the CBI survey. That improvement points to stronger external demand and may help manufacturers that have been squeezed by weak domestic demand, high energy costs and uncertainty around global trade.

The caution is that inflation pressure has not disappeared. Reuters reported that expectations for selling prices rose to plus 22 in August from plus 11 in July. Higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict could feed costs for manufacturers, transport and households, limiting the benefit of stronger orders.

The Bank of England will read the data as mixed. Stronger factory demand and higher historical output reduce recession concerns, but price expectations and energy costs argue against complacency on inflation. Policymakers still face the difficult task of supporting growth without allowing a new inflation wave to take hold.

What is confirmed is that the ONS revised prior growth estimates higher and the CBI survey showed a sharp improvement in factory orders. What remains unresolved is whether the improvement becomes a sustained manufacturing recovery or a temporary rebound vulnerable to energy prices, borrowing costs and global demand swings.

Fact-check date: August 20, 2026. Article type: News. Sources: Reuters; Office for National Statistics; Confederation of British Industry. Developing note: GDP revisions, factory-order data, inflation expectations and Bank of England policy signals may change as additional economic releases arrive.