EL NINO OUTLOOK RISES AS U.S. FORECASTERS WARN OF HISTORIC STRENGTH

U.S. forecasters say El Nino is likely to strengthen sharply through the end of 2026, raising the risk of major global weather disruption into early 2027. Reuters reported that the U.S. Climate Prediction Center's July update gives El Nino a 97 percent chance of persisting through early spring 2027 and an 81 percent chance of becoming "very strong" during the October-to-December period.

The Associated Press reported that the developing El Nino could rank among the most powerful since modern records began in 1950. The event formed only about a month ago but has already reached moderate intensity, with record-warm Pacific Ocean temperatures helping it intensify quickly.

El Nino is a recurring climate pattern linked to unusually warm water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The Associated Press reported that the current event is expected to influence weather patterns across multiple regions, including wetter conditions across parts of the southern United States, warmer winter conditions in the northern United States and a likely reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity.

The global effects could be wider than North America. Forecasters and scientists are watching for drought risk in Indonesia, increased atmospheric warming and disruptions to rainfall patterns in areas already vulnerable to food, water and wildfire stress. Reuters reported that the Climate Prediction Center expects the event to strengthen through the end of the year, which would place its strongest effects in late 2026 and early 2027.

The July update also matters because El Nino can add short-term heat to an already warming planet. The Associated Press reported that climate experts said the event could help break global temperature records by releasing additional ocean heat into the atmosphere. Scientists cited by the Associated Press said human-caused climate change is amplifying the background warmth on which this El Nino is developing.

The strength forecast is still probabilistic. Reuters reported that the Climate Prediction Center assigned an 81 percent probability to a very strong October-to-December event, rather than declaring that outcome certain. El Nino forecasts can shift as ocean temperatures, trade winds, atmospheric pressure and tropical rainfall patterns evolve.

The warning comes as many countries are already dealing with extreme weather. A major heat dome is expected to bring dangerous temperatures across much of the continental United States, while Europe and East Asia have also faced heatwaves, wildfires, flooding and typhoon impacts this summer. A very strong El Nino could add another layer of seasonal risk for governments, farmers, insurers, emergency managers and public-health agencies.

The immediate questions are whether the event reaches the very strong threshold later this year, how long it persists into 2027 and which regions face the clearest impacts. Forecast agencies are expected to update the outlook monthly as the Pacific signal strengthens or weakens.

Fact-check date: 11 July 2026
Article type: News
Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, U.S. Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, Bloomberg